No exercise + eating to appetite = weight loss?

I don't think I've actually lost much weight this week, but I saw a surprise 139.5 last week one day and today was 140.0. The other days I was closer to 142. But the truth is that I have had ZERO exercise -- grocery shopping is as mobile as I've gotten -- and I have not tried to restrict my snacking. However, I haven't had a huge appetite, and though I have been eating far too many sweets throughout the day, I haven't had much alcohol at all (it hasn't appealed to me) and I've been forgetting to eat dessert in the evening as often as not. I've just been sick and tired. The pleurisy has faded, but I'm into laryngitis, round 2, and Mary and Cecilia have been significantly sick this past week (Mary hadn't had even a touch of this until the last few days, but Cecilia was into at least round 2 or maybe 3). With SOMEbody being sick every day for the past month or so, I haven't been to the gym in ages. But generally speaking if I don't exercise I do gain weight, almost immediately. All I can figure is that I'm either eating less than I thought I was, or I'm converting a lot of muscle back into fat (depressing but probably true) and it's going to catch up to me over Christmas.